Surveillance: Orion - sustaining the hunter | ADM Jun 2010
But as the fleet grows older, Strategic Reform Program (SRP) savings will become harder to capture.
Gregor Ferguson | Sydney
The RAAF's fleet of 19 AP-3C Orions, which form part of its Surveillance and Response Group (SRG) seems to be hitting its straps after struggling for a couple of years to fly the hours originally scheduled.
The 2008-09 Defence Annual Report states the Orion fleet achieved 101 per cent of its planned rate of effort, or 8,003 flying hours.
This includes operations in the Middle East as well as in OP Resolute, supporting Border Protection Command in the surveillance of Australia's maritime approaches.
The fleet average of 420 hours per year per aircraft makes it one of the most heavily tasked in the ADF.
The previous few years had seen the fleet fail to meet its targeted rate of effort, due to a mix of serviceability and spares issues, limited maintenance capacity, and in some cases the cancellation of scheduled exercises.
In 2007-08 the fleet achieved 96 per cent of its target (7,533 hours), in 2006-07 it was 87 per cent (7,094 hours), in 2005-06 it was 90 per cent (7,418 hours), in 2003-04 it was 86 per cent (7,702 hours).
The Orions are the most capable, and arguably the most busy, they have ever been.
Their ability to exceed their planned rate of effort is due partly to the efforts of the SRG's air and ground crews, and partly to the streamlined in-service support arrangements introduced under the framework of the P3 Accord in late-2005.
This brings together the DMO's Maritime Patrol SPO, Australian Aerospace, which has been responsible for Orion platform deeper maintenance since the early-1990s, and BAE Systems (formerly Tenix) which is responsible for mission system support.
Between them the P3 Accord partners will sustain the Orion fleet, and implement periodic upgrades, until its retirement, currently scheduled for 2018-19.
The cost of maintaining the Orion fleet was $131 million in 2008-09.
Defence's SRP aims to reduce costs across the portfolio and the P3 Accord is chasing efficiencies.
But as the fleet grows older the maintenance effort is being driven up relentlessly; flight safety leaves little room for corner-cutting in this regard.
The current plan is that the 19 Orions will be replaced with eight Boeing P-8A Poseidons, which will be augmented some time thereafter by a small force (probably half a dozen) of multi-mission UAVs; this may be a variant of the US Navy's Global Hawk but that's by no means certain.
The RAAF hasn't decided yet how this transition will be undertaken, nor how long it will take, so it's not impossible that a few Orions may be required to serve beyond 2018, but all current plans are predicated on this retirement date.
Urgent upgrades
The ongoing commitment to the Middle East Area of Operations (MEAO) has demanded a number of Rapid Acquisition Projects (RAP) and interim Operational Support (OS) upgrades.
These include installation of the ALR-47 CMDS with the AAR 60 Missile Approach Warning Systems (MAWS), successive upgrades to the Star Safire III electro-optics/infra red system, and installation of the Tactical Common Data Link (TCDL) and a Local Area Network.
A Rapid Acquisition Project for the Traffic Collision Avoidance System (TCAS) has also recently been approved.
BAE Systems (formerly Tenix's aerospace division) is the Accord partner responsible for Through-Life Support (TLS) of the mission system and for developing new capabilities.
The company has Authorised Engineering Organisation (AEO) status for the AP-3C and its role is to design mission system upgrades and enhancements, carry out the first installation, get this through the test and approval stages and then pass the project to Australia Aerospace for fleet-wide installation.
The company is also responsible for maintaining the AP-3C Systems Engineering Laboratory at Edinburgh, along with the Integrated Test and Training Facility (ITTF), which includes the ‘back end' Operational Mission Simulator (OMS).
Maintaining the broader capability of the Orions is being handled through three separate capital equipment projects: Air 5276 Phase 8B, Air 5276 Capability Assurance Program 1 (CAP1) and Air 5276 CAP2.
Under Air 5276 Ph.8B the AP-3C's ALR-2001 ESM system will be upgraded by BAE Systems (which delivered the original ALR-2001 system) to ensure it remains effective until aircraft's Planned Withdrawal Date (PWD).
Under Air 5276 CAP1 the AP-3Cs will be fitted with an upgraded FLIR, the TCDL, and a new video recorder system.
This upgrade will enter service in 2011 integrating the somewhat ad hoc OS upgrades done previously and will remain operational until the aircraft's PWD.
Implementing a common equipment fit across all aircraft, training and support systems along with an improved in-service logistics support structure should result in further improvements in maintenance productivity, Defence says.
CAP2
The CAP2 upgrade is intended to address AP-3C aircraft and ground support system obsolescence to ensure the continued availability of the AP-3C.
The scope of this upgrade hasn't been disclosed, though ADM understands it has been identified in some detail and forms part of a wider body of work undertaken by Defence and the P3 Accord to address obsolescence issues and the transition to the P-8A under Project Air 7000 Ph.2.
CAP2 is due for 2nd pass approval in the 2011-12 to 2012-13 timeframe with an Initial Operating Capability between 2014 and 2016.
One upgrade which won't now go ahead is the integration of the EuroTorp MU90 lightweight torpedo with the Orion.
Defence announced earlier this year the torpedo wouldn't arm the Orion; the current Mk46 torpedo is likely to soldier on for a while longer, until the P-8A enters service.
This aircraft will be armed with the US Mk54 lightweight torpedo and the RAAF is unlikely to demand that the P-8A be integrated with the MU90, unless another customer such as India accepts the costs and risks of doing this first.
Integrating the MU90 with the AP-3C and introducing it into the SRG inventory for a relatively short period probably isn't economical, even though the weapon is already in service aboard RAN frigates.
All of these upgrades are being designed by BAE Systems under the aegis of the P3 Accord and implemented fleet-wide by Australian Aerospace.
The P3 Accord is working well, according to Defence, and this is borne out by the high rate of effort sustained by the Orions despite their advancing age.
In 2008 it won both South Australian and National Engineering Excellence Awards for the CAP1 TCDL project, with an ADM Commendation for its work in developing the Safety By Inspection (SBI - see below) structural program to ensure the AP-3C can safely and effectively reach its PWD.
Platform
Australian Aerospace has been responsible for Orion deeper maintenance since 1993 and also has Orion AEO status.
Under the P3 Accord it is responsible for all platform-based systems engineering and design changes and for deeper maintenance of the Orion airframe.
It has 230 staff, 140 at RAAF Base Richmond, and the balance at Edinburgh.
It's workforce in South Australia includes 33 RAAF technicians who work on deeper maintenance activities there as part of their trade training.
This exposure to the inner workings of the Orion provides a down-stream benefit to the RAAF when these technicians end up on the flight line or on detachment overseas supporting the aircraft in often-difficult conditions.
To see the Orions through to their life of type in 2018-19 Australian Aerospace is combining the regular R2 and R3 service activities with the Safety By Inspection (SBI) program.
The SBI program emerged from the multi-national P-3 Service Life Assessment Program (SLAP) undertaken a few years ago by the US, Canada, Australia and the Netherlands to help operators assess the Orion's fatigue life and what it would take to extend this.
The SLAP identified 56 Fatigue Critical Areas (FCA), all in the wings and horizontal stabilizers, which need careful monitoring and periodic repair.
Otherwise, it found the Orion could enjoy an almost unlimited service life so long as it is inspected regularly and repaired when necessary.
The practical limit on its service life is the amount of aircraft downtime an operator is prepared to put up with while increasingly old Orions cycle through the inspection and repair process.
While the RAAF's AP-3C Orions are a relatively young fleet by world standards, each aircraft is accruing nearly 500 hours per year and ageing effects are starting to show.
The SBI program was defined by the Aircraft Structural Integrity Section of the Directorate General of technical Airworthiness (DGTA) and its implementation was developed jointly by Australian Aerospace and the MPSPO and sees each aircraft undergo a 25-point inspection process at the 13,500 hour mark and typically a six-element repair scheme.
Further inspections are required at 16,000 hours.
At present there are no plans to extend the program because by the time the oldest aircraft reaches the next SBI inspection point at the 18,500 hour mark, the fleet will have reached its PWD.
This work is normally conducted as part of the normal R2 and R3 maintenance cycle.
So far the only the 13,500 hour inspection has been carried out, on five aircraft.
The company has found that corrosion, rather than fatigue, is the key issue and damage this makes sense given that other international operators have accrued over 20,000 hours without finding significant fatigue-related issues.
Interestingly, deeper maintenance carried out on Orions which have rotated through the MEAO shows these aircraft haven't been materially affected by either the environment there or the types of operation they are carrying out.
The primary damage location is the lower wing surfaces adjacent to the inboard engine nacelles.
The first two SBI inspections found significant corrosion damage there and Australian Aerospace had to replace six of the nine milled aluminium planks, each of them nearly 50ft long, which make up the lower wing surface; by a stroke of good fortune the SPO had bought seven ship sets of lower wing planks several years ago as a hedge against airframe corrosion.
The R2 service is carried out at 12-month intervals and the R3 every five years.
A typical R2 servicing ,which Australian Aerospace would carry out either at Edinburgh or Richmond, takes about 25 days and 4-5,000 man-hours.
If an SBI is scheduled also, the inspection and any rectification work could increase this to 105 days and as much as 20,000 extra man hours.
The typical R3 service takes 94 days and 28-32,000 man hours; this can only be done at Richmond where Australian aerospace has established the necessary airframe jigs and fixtures.
Incorporating an SBI would extend this to 123 days.
Life of Type?
The Life of Type of the AP-3C Orion is 2018-19, and all of the P3 Accord's planning is predicated on that milestone, industry sources emphasise.
However, if there is any likelihood that its replacement, the P-8A, could be delayed, then some sort of life extension may be required.
The same goes for the introduction of the Multi-mission Unmanned Aerial System (MUAS) in Phase 1B of Project Air 7000, which now lies well beyond the horizon of the current DCP - put bluntly, eight P-8A won't do the job of 19 Orions, and analysts have wondered aloud whether or not some of the Orions, at least, may need to remain in service while the MUAS is introduced.
If the Orions need to serve longer the challenge for Defence is to identify the scope of any necessary life extension work as early as possible so that the Commonwealth gets a decent return on its investment.
A major sensor upgrade or mission system upgrade could take months, even years in the case of a major equipment such as a radar, so would probably only be contemplated in the unlikely event of a catastrophic delay in the P-8A program.
However, minor upgrades similar to CAP1, CAP2 and Air 5276 Ph.8 may be necessary.
The airframe and engine can be kept going well beyond the current Life of Type - the international T-56 engine community is looking at operating and supporting the power plant until 2030 and beyond, while other Orion fleets have accrued airframe hours which suggest the RAAF could keep its aircraft flying well into the 2020s.
The only problem for the RAAF is that the current SBI program, being predicated on a 2018 withdrawal date, hasn't defined an inspection and repair regime for the 18,500 hour mark and beyond.
Corrosion will be taking a significant toll by that point and aircraft availability is likely to suffer as more and more extensive repairs are required.
This is the reason many Orion operators with older fleets are considering or actively re-winging their aircraft.
Ageing aircraft
A 2009 study by the Defence Teaming Centre warned re-winging the AP-3Cs wouldn't necessarily address other emerging age-related issues with the electrical systems, nor any potential need for minor capability upgrades to the aircraft's sensors and self-protection systems.
An extended cycle of major and minor upgrades would eat into aircraft availability, undermining an already stressed capability.
There's no suggestion at this stage the RAAF's Orions will need to serve beyond 2019, but until the window of risk around the service entry of the P-8A and MUAS closes Defence will need to keep a contingency plan available.
The worst case for Defence would be lingering uncertainty over the Orion PWD, right up to 2016 or 2017.
Defence must determine as early as possible whether or not the current PWD still stands, and if not to take a considered approach to any life extensions that may be necessary.