Forecast International’s ‘The Market for Submarines’ analysis projects that 111 submarines worth $106.7 billion will be produced from 2011-2020.
The average value of these submarines will be $960 million, an indicator of the growing complexity of the modern submarine and the increasing use of air-independent propulsion, both of which add substantially to the cost of diesel-electric boats.
The submarine market is divided into three subsectors.
The first is the market for ballistic missile submarines, or SS BILLIONs. There are 13 such submarines on order or under construction.
These represent 11.7 per cent of the total market in terms of numbers but are valued at $26 billion, representing 24.5 per cent of the total value of the market.
The average unit cost of the SS BILLIONs is $2 billion.
The second sector is the market for nuclear-powered attack submarines, or SSNs.
The projections show sales of 27 such submarines, representing 24 per cent of the total number and valued at $48.32 billion.
The final sector is the market for SSKs, or diesel-electric submarines.
From 2011-2020, 71 of these boats will be built, representing 64 per cent of the total.
They are valued at $32.4 billion, representing 30.36 per cent of the total expenditure on submarines from 2011-2020.
A notable factor this year is that the average cost of diesel-electric submarines has increased to $456 million.
Defence minister Stephen Smith has dismissed arguments by several analysts and affirmed the government’s commitment to the assembly of 12 submarines in South Australia.
Addressing the SIA’s fifth biennial conference in Western Australia at the end of last year he said the government’s decision to acquire 12 future submarines was a defining element of Force 2030 and Australia’s future maritime power.