China is believed to be working towards an advanced jet that could potentially match the capabilities of the upcoming F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF), contrary to earlier projections made by US Defense Secretary Robert Gates.
The Pentagon publicly addressed the anticipated development, citing reason to believe that the Chinese fifth-generation fighter may be operational by 2018, and would at least rival the main American fighter of today - the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor.
He expressed the belief that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) would only possess a “handful” of the aircraft by 2025.
Analysts suggest that if the Chinese government were ever to act on its threats to mount an attack on Taiwan, it would take into account the possibility of incurring a NATO response.
As such, the PLAAF could potentially synchronise the assault with targeted strikes on US air bases and anti-air missile infrastructure in the Pacific.
The problem from an intelligence perspective is that China’s full capabilities and future military plans are relatively guarded secrets.
In November 2009, General He Weirong, the deputy commander of the PLAAF, claimed in a television interview that several programs for next-generation multirole aircraft were currently in development.
Western intelligence has termed this program “J-XX”.
Even with the data to build an effective fighter, some doubt that China as yet possesses the investment capital and the requisite skills to properly orchestrate the production process engineering and integration needed to see the project through to effective completion.