If it hadn’t been made completely clear already, the independent analysis of the Navy’s warships will assess how the surface fleet will complement the new nuclear submarines.
That’s how it’s spelled out in the Defence Strategic Review which says the review will examine the fleet’s capabilities to ensure its size structure and composition complement the forthcoming nuclear-powered conventionally-armed submarines.
That’s the principal consideration of the independent analysis team, retired US Vice Admiral William Hilarides told an industry briefing in Canberra on the review.
Admiral Hilarides is a former US Navy submariner, commander of US Naval Sea Systems Command and, since retiring, chair of Australia's expert shipbuilding advisory panel.
The panel will hand their recommendations to government by September 30.
Admiral Hilarides revealed none of their thinking on the composition of the fleet but he did outline their methodology.
The review will take into consideration the material state of the fleet in being and their expected performance in combat, plus consideration of ships likely to be built, along with constabulary vessels.
That’s based on well-established modelling of what’s required to generate a ship’s capabilities in peacetime and during conflict across three epochs – present to 2025, 2026-2030 and beyond 2031.
Right now the surface fleet comprises three Hobart-class DDGs, eight Anzac-class frigates, two Canberra-class amphibious assault ships, six Armidale-class patrol boats, two Cape-class patrol boats, two Supply-class tanker replenishment ships plus other support vessels.
Planned are nine Hunter-class anti-submarine warfare frigates to replace the Anzacs from around 2031 and 12 Arafura-class Offshore Patrol Combatants to replace the Armidales. The first Arafura is set to be commissioned this year.
While the analysis team has disclosed none of its thinking on the future fleet composition, plenty of analysts have, most contemplating a future war with China.
Among the proscriptions is that there should be more DDGs – giving a greater number of missile launch cells across the fleet – and fewer Hunters. The Arafuras could be equipped with anti-ship missiles. The Navy could acquire a new class of corvette-sized vessels.
The briefing gave industry members opportunities to raise issues and provide information which the analysis team should be aware of.
Should the analysis team need further clarification of any information, they will contact industry and state or territory governments or foreign governments as required.
The briefing featured a strong emphasis on probity, reminding participants of the government’s commitment to integrity and honesty.